Runner's Forum: What should my goal pace be?

I'm running my 8th marathon on Saturday, but my last one was 2004, so it's been a while and I could use some advice.

I've managed 5 long runs, 16,18,19,20,16. The last 20 and 16 were at a 7:30 pace and were perfectly comfortable. My regular training runs have been at a 6:53 and those are usually around 8 miles. I haven't done as much speed work as I would have hoped. My most recent speed work was 3 1.5 mile intervals at a 5:53 pace. That was very difficult, especially the final intervals. My previous PR in the marathon was a 3:02.

I have no idea what pace I should aim for in this race (Memphis Marathon, pretty flat)? I'm guessing something between a 3hr and 3:10 pace is where I stand, but there's a big difference between starting at a 6:52 and a 7:14. Any advice?

Thanks, I hadn't seen this before. Interestingly, I put in a recent 3 miler and a recent 10 miler, and they both predicted a 3:02, so it seems that's what I'll be gunning for. The training paces seem on target too, so with any luck, I'll tie or slightly beat my PR.